The evolutions of the period 9 – 16 August.c., in the context of the pandemic, were the following:

Romania:

• The 10-day moving average for new confirmed cases is up 3.2% at 1,257 between August 9 and August 16. On August 15, this indicator recorded a record high of 1,282. The cure rate fell for the seventh week in a row, by 2.5 percentage points between August 9 and August 16, to 46.2%, the low on May 10. Net/asset cases are up for the tenth week in a row, up 20.5% between August 9 and August 16, to 34,883 (historical high). If we exclude asymptomatic cases, there was an advance of 19.2% in the analyzed period, to 26,902 cases and it is a record level.

• If we consider the dynamics of net cases on a 10-day moving average, Germany recorded positive values for the 27th consecutive day, and Romania recorded values above zero for the 65th day in a row on August 16.

• Romania's economy decreased by 4.7% y/y in the first half of the year, but what was harder from the shock induced by the pandemic was recorded in the second quarter: the decline is by 10.5% y/y, and currently the economy is at the beginning of the post-pandemic cycle. 

• The current account deficit adjusted by 20% y/y in the first half of the year, and foreign direct investment increased for the third month in a row in June.

• The positive climate in international financial markets has strengthened, with the U.S. S&P 500 stock index trading in the area of historic highs.

• The daily rate of confirmed cases worldwide (on the 10-day moving average) stood at 1.28% on August 16, down from 1.39% on August 9. It's the lowest level since February 28.

• The total number of confirmed cases reached 21.7 million on August 16, up 1.8 million from August 9.

• The global confirmed cure/cases ratio continued its upward trend last week to nearly 63% on August 16 (record high); up 2.1 percentage points from august 9.

In the United States, where there are almost 25% of all confirmed cases worldwide, there are over 5.4 million confirmed cases so far. The 10-day moving average for new confirmed cases fell for the third week in a row, by 5.3% between August 9 and 16, to 52,000, in the lows area at the beginning of July. On Sunday, August 16, 42,936 new cases were reported, the figure marking the lowest level since June 29. The ratio of cured cases/ confirmed cases is up by 1.1 percentage points in the analyzed period, to almost 34%, a record level.  

In Germany,the 10-day moving average for new confirmed cases continued to rise last week by 28.6% between August 9 and 16, to 997, being in the area of highs from the beginning of May. The ratio of cures/confirmed cases decreased by 1.1 percentage points in the analyzed period, to 89.4%, the lowest level since May 25.

Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania