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Andrei Radulescu, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania, five considerations about the current macroeconomic context
07 May 2020 Reading time 1:00 minute
- The pandemic is a shock to globalisation and international trade and should be seen as an opportunity for countries with trade deficits. It is the biggest opportunity for Romania since the fall of communism.
- The intensification of digitization has become a necessity following the incidence of the pandemic, and Romania has IT&C resources (high share in GDP, competitive sector from a global perspective).
- It is Romania's chance to invest effectively in critical infrastructure, health, education, roads, railways.
- Low real financing costs, a strong banking sector and development potential are the ingredients to move from quantity to quality, which is fundamental to the sustainable development equation.
- COVID-19 falls into the category of natural shocks, the more severe the impact this year, the more important the recovery next year. The V-scenario is also supported by improving investor confidence in Germany, but also by the significant rise in stock market indices in recent weeks, influenced by the passing of the pandemic tipping point and the gradual lifting of restrictions.
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05 OCTOBER 2020
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